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market greed

Better returns over the next five years

Better returns over the next five years

As it turns out my crystal ball really works.   Unfortunately, I only realise that now after going through all my articles written in 2013 when the crystal ball correctly predicted the lousy returns of the last 5 years.  Of course,

mw@dmin October 29, 2020October 29, 2020 Hello world, Market behaviour, Market Drivers Read more

Wholesale buy-in to Covid-19 “spook story” is costly

Wholesale buy-in to Covid-19 “spook story” is costly

I would much rather be writing about something other than Covid-19, but this is clearly the only story in town.  I use the word story purposely not to make light of the pandemic, but as a play on the word

mw@dmin September 3, 2020September 3, 2020 Market behaviour, Market Drivers Read more

Warning lights lead to change

Warning lights lead to change

This week’s article is an extract from a reply to a client’s question on whether he should reduce his share exposure or move to a balanced portfolio strategy given several “warning lights” on the horizon.   The easiest way to

mw@dmin March 5, 2020March 5, 2020 Investor Behaviour, Market behaviour, Market Drivers Read more

Damned if you don’t … price vs value

Damned if you don’t … price vs value

With the US stock market now entering its 11th year in a bull market, it is probably a good idea to reflect on some old age wisdom, which is nicely explained by the following quote: Bull markets are born on

mw@dmin February 20, 2020February 20, 2020 Market behaviour, Market Drivers Read more

Trade wars lead to MAED

Trade wars lead to MAED

The cold war between Russia and the USA was premised on a critical acronym known as a MAD, which stood for “Mutual Assured Destruction” in reference to the nuclear arsenal of each country and that any hot war between them

mw@dmin September 5, 2019September 5, 2019 Investor Behaviour, Market behaviour, Market Drivers Read more

Storytelling can be misleading

Storytelling can be misleading

In the bestselling book Homo Sapiens Yuval Harari theorized that the success of humankind can be directly ascribed to our ability to tells stories, which we could all believe in and collectively work towards, thus achieving as a common goal.

mw@dmin June 13, 2019June 13, 2019 Investor Behaviour, Market behaviour Read more

Capitulation

Capitulation

“Sell in May and go away!” This adage would have worked well for you this year. The Cambridge English Dictionary defines the meaning of Capitulation as either of the following 1. “to accept defeat, or to give up or give

mw@dmin May 30, 2019May 30, 2019 Investment Strategies, Market Drivers Read more

Selling equities and investing in cash now is rash, wait patiently

Selling equities and investing in cash now is rash, wait patiently

The doldrums are noted for calm periods around the equator when the winds disappear trapping sail-powered boats for days or even weeks.   There are many stories told of sailors going completely crazy while desperately hoping for the wind whilst

mw@dmin May 16, 2019May 16, 2019 Investment Risk, Investment Strategies, Investor Behaviour, Market Drivers Read more

Investment yarns result in high prices and lousy returns

Investment yarns result in high prices and lousy returns

According the author of the award-winning book Homo Sapiens the success of humankind over other species came from the ability to work together and the secret to this togetherness came from the ability to tell stories, which we could all

mw@dmin March 7, 2019March 7, 2019 Investor Behaviour, Market behaviour, Market Drivers Read more

Investing; Simple but never Easy

Investing; Simple but never Easy

The illustration below explains how to calculate the expected return from a share or the overall market, which is represented by the straight upward sloping line in the chart and is simply the current dividend yield + expected real (above

mw@dmin February 7, 2019February 7, 2019 Investor Behaviour, Market behaviour Read more
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